Saturday, June 26, 2010

Pascal's Wager


Suppose we’ve chosen the wrong god. Every time we go to church we’re just making him madder and madder!
–Homer Simpson
This is exactly why Pascal's Wager fails. It sets up a false dichotomy between atheism and a specific deity with eternal hell for nonbelievers, such as Christianity. It goes something like this, if Christianity is true and you believe, then you earn everlasting life, if you don't believe, you earn eternal punishment. If Christianity is false, inferring that if there is no god, then nothing happens after death. Given the expected return of our options, we should believe even if we think it is extremely unlikely to be the case.

In this formation of the argument, the inference that Christianity being false leads to no gods is false due to the false dichotomy, it could easily be the case that Islam is true or an unidentified deity would reward the atheist (no doubt for valuing rationality) while punishing the believer. Considering more options of this type where non-belief is preferred by the deity rather than belief, Pascal's Wager can be easily turned in the atheist's favor. The number of deities this could be applied to is endless. For this reason, Pascal's Wager has been portrayed as trying to pick a winning horse out of an infinite number of contestants, trying to do so without an epistemology that gives reasonable results would be a futile pursuit.

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